First there was the refinance boom--historic super low rates where every loan was a vanilla slam dunk. Quick and easy cash and the loans sailed through unscathed.

Then came the regular ARMs--because rates were rising and people still wanted those low "bragging rights" rates. They simply had to have a rate below 5% so they could one-up the Joneses at the next BBQ and prove how smart they were.

Next were the 4-payment plan loans and option ARMs--because people wanted flexibility and needed to keep their monthly payments low but still wanted the big house. Who cares if these were possibly indexed to a foreign exchange (The LIBOR) and extremely volatile?! With a choice of four payments every month what could go wrong?

Then there were the interest-only loans which became very popular--heck the rich and famous have known about these for years. They only pay interest and invest the extra equity in the stock market instead of paying the principal money to the bank. It's the ultimate leverage. But the interest-only loans came with a dark side--negative amortization. People didn't exactly know what they were getting themselves into. They wanted to play fund manager and, of course, they wanted low monthly payments. Little did they realize they might find themselves hanging up-side down with negative equity at the time of sale.

Silently, the reverse mortgages trickled in--because rates were rising, oil prices went up, inflation increased costs, and seniors couldn't afford their medication. With their house being the only thing they had left, people figured if I got it, why not spend it? The nursing home would just try to get their grubby hands on it anyway. Hell no to that!

Next came the "cut off your ARM despite your rate" crowd and the panic of a volatile economy. "You better get into a fixed rate before it's too late", being their mantra. That's where we are today since many of the early ARM's from 3 to 7 years ago are now coming due. It's funny, you'll hear these ads all over the radio, trying to get people to convert. Some even use scare tactics with amusing roller coaster sounds and racks being stretched in the background. How creative!

The next great mortgage boom, I predict, will be the fixed 40 and 50 year mortgage. Many of you who I've spoken to on the phone and through email, have said the very same thing.

Look for more mortgage innovation to come as rates continue to rise. With inflated pricing in the housing market, longer fixed loans are the only way to keep rates low enough for many people to qualify for a home. Not to mention that people seem to like the idea of having a fixed payment per month versus any of the ARM options.

Keep in mind that many borrowers never intend to stay in the property for the full term of the loan, and will probably sell long before. Heck, a 70 year old taking out a 50 year mortgage won't even be alive by then! He'll be 120 years old! But the lenders don't care as long as he pays his bills.

Currently, there are only a few lenders offering loans with these terms, but be on the look out for many more to come. Mortgage lenders have always been creative with their financing and keeping interest rates low (no matter what the term) is a great benefit for consumers. It helps get people into homes and that's what counts. Keeping the real estate market liquid is crucial to the economy and lenders know this!

As a broker, branch manager or loan officer, if you want to survive in this competitive and cutthroat market, you've got to be aware of what's in store. My advice is to focus on the ARM conversions for now but keep an eye out for the 40 and 50 year fixed loans arriving everywhere shortly. Only then will you be in a position to capitalize on the next great mortgage boom.

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